Vol. 28, No. 1 (2013)
http://repositorio.uahurtado.cl/handle/11242/1492
2019-05-20T09:30:09ZLa Dinámica de la Manufactura, el Caso Mexicano en el Periodo 1995:01-2012:06
http://repositorio.uahurtado.cl/handle/11242/2020
La Dinámica de la Manufactura, el Caso Mexicano en el Periodo 1995:01-2012:06
Ludlow Wiechers, Jorge
Manufacturing exhibits nonlinear trends in production levels, one being an active state and the other a passive state. We use a Markov model to estimate these two states, which are tied to United States imports of Mexican products. A regression is made in order to estimate whether there is an expansion or contraction in order to show which sectors have a greater propensity to expand or to decrease, there are several cases where the contracting level of output lasts longer than the expansionary alternative. This method of analysis can be applied to any Latin American economy.
2013-01-01T00:00:00ZDoes the Bic Estimate and Forecast Better than the Aic?
http://repositorio.uahurtado.cl/handle/11242/2019
Does the Bic Estimate and Forecast Better than the Aic?
Medel, Carlos; Salgado, Sergio
We test two questions: (i) Is the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) more parsimonious than Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)? and (ii) Is BIC better than AIC for forecasting purposes? By using simulated data, we provide statistical inference of both hypotheses individually and then jointly with a multiple hypotheses testing procedure to control better for type-I error. Both testing procedures deliver the same result: The BIC shows an in- and out-of-sample superiority over AIC only in a long-sample context.
2013-01-01T00:00:00ZTesting the Validity of Wagner’s Law in Bolivia: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis with Disaggregated Data
http://repositorio.uahurtado.cl/handle/11242/2018
Testing the Validity of Wagner’s Law in Bolivia: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis with Disaggregated Data
Bojanic, Antonio N.
Nine versions of Wagner’s law are examined employing annual time-series data on Bolivia for the period 1940-2010. The analysis is an advance over previous work in several ways. First, the stationarity properties and the order of integration of the data are investigated using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Phillips and Perron tests. Second, the hypothesis of a long-run relationship between different types of government expenditures and income is tested employing the methodology of cointegration analysis. Third, Error Correction Models are utilized to determine the direction of causality between the variables of interest. Lastly, the study comprises a period of seventy years, the longest of its kind for Bolivia. Consistent with Wagner’s proposition, bidirectional causality is found between income and government expenditures in six of the nine versions of the law.
2013-01-01T00:00:00ZEl Ajuste al Equilibrio a Largo Plazo de los Salarios en España
http://repositorio.uahurtado.cl/handle/11242/2017
El Ajuste al Equilibrio a Largo Plazo de los Salarios en España
Aixala, Jose; Pelet, Carmen
This paper provides empirical evidence about the relationship between wages and their determinants in the Spanish economy from a macroeconomic perspective, as well as about the adjustment speed back to long run equilibrium, estimating an error correction mechanism by non-linear methods. The results reveal that the unemployment rate and the bargaining variables have no effect on the evolution of wages. The variable that explains the evolution of wages in the long term is prices, with wages showing slightly inflationary behavior. In the short term, wages are explained by their past values, reflecting a nominal inertia.
2013-01-01T00:00:00Z